Job Market Paper
Who Stays, Who Switches: Tax Frictions and the Shift from Mutual Funds (Job Market Paper)
This paper shows that unrealized capital gains generate both persistence and fragility in mutual funds. Using newly compiled fund-level data on unrealized gains from SEC filings, I document how investors decide to stay in a mutual fund or switch to lower-fee, tax-efficient vehicles such as separately managed accounts and exchange-traded funds. Unrealized gains create persistence by locking investors into funds despite higher fees and tax disadvantages, as switching triggers immediate capital gains taxes. I show unrealized gains reduce outflows and enable managers to charge higher fees. However, unrealized gains also create fragility through capital gains distributions: when some investors redeem shares, and the fund liquidates appreciated securities, these realized gains are passed through as taxable income to remaining investors. This creates strategic complementarities where one investor's redemption and switching decision affects others' incentives to stay or switch. I rationalize these dynamics through a bank-run model with heterogeneous unrealized gains and endogenous distributions that generates multiple equilibria under identical fundamentals that creates financial fragility.